March 01, 2012

CURRENCYCURRENT BIASPOTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Short Term)
Trade in Progress: Sold at 1.3343, stop at 1.3407, target at 1.3260. Move stop to breakeven if rates drop to 1.3302
GBP/USD (Short Term)
Finding support at previous resistance near 1.5900, room up to test 2012 highs at 1.6000 round handle
USD/JPY (Short Term)
Consolidating at 81.00 round handle, bulls watching for test of 7-month highs near 81.50
USD/CHF (Short Term)
Consolidating in mid-.9000s, key resistance at .9093, support at .9000
USD/CAD (Short Term)
Trade in Progress: Sold USD/CAD at .9895, STOP ADJUSTED to .9913, target at .9810. See full report for more details.
AUD/USD (Short Term)
Bouncing from Monthly Pivot support at 1.0730, see full report for more details.
NZD/USD (Short Term)
Consolidating in the mid-.8300s, bulls targeting move up to .8400 resistance
EUR/USD (Intraday Forecast)
Potential Strategy
Trade in Progress: Sold at 1.3343, stop at 1.3407, target at 1.3260. Move stop to breakeven if rates drop to 1.3302
What is the trend?Down
What is this pattern?No pattern present - See all chart patterns
Why is this significant?
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis?
Reason for Strategy

The EUR/USD cratered yesterday as Ben Bernanke appeared more optimistic on the U.S. economy, while the ECB simultaneously increased its balance sheet through another LTRO (see my colleague Boris Schlossberg's summary). Significant technical damage was done as the pair broke below previous support at 1.3365, opening up the door for further drops. To take advantage of a bearish continuation, we highlighted a sell opportunity at 1.3343 yesterday afternoon, and this trade has now triggered with a stop at 1.3407 and a target at 1.3260. Note that it would also be prudent to move stops to breakeven on a move down to 1.3302, which we have yet to see. For now, we will let this trade work with no adjustments.

Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 31.3579Monthly R2
Resistance 21.3485Previous resistance
Resistance 11.3365Previous support, now resistance
Current Price1.3332
Support 11.3300Round handle support
Support 21.3258Monthly Pivot
Support 3tbd

4hr Chart -

4hr Chart -
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